Welcome to Start/Sit, where I will break down the toughest calls you have on your roster every week. The point of this article is not to give you the best, top plays overall. That’s why we do projections that will highlight the best overall plays for your lineup.
Instead, we will focus on the players that you’re on the fence about and have a tough time deciding on. These are the QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs right on the borderline of your lineups.
As always, my DMs in Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks
Starts
Anthony Richardson (at Texans)
It was a solid debut for Anthony Richardson as the QB5 on the week (20.9 FP). Richardson added 10/40/1 rushing and led all QBs with six designed rushing attempts (which he took for 24 yards). Those designed carries are going to give Richardson a classic Konami Code ceiling (H/T Rich Hribar). Just for reference, Jalen Hurts (8.1), and Justin Fields (6.3) led all QBs in designed carries per game last season.
HC Shane Steichen also pushed the pace offensively, which is something we forecasted going into the season. The Colts were the second-fastest offense Week 1, ripping off a play every 24.3 seconds of game clock. Pace of play doesn’t always matter for fantasy, but playing faster will boost the Colts' play volume.
The only “knock” here is that we didn’t see this passing game take any shots down the field. Richardson only attempted two passes of 20+ yards (both were incomplete).
Houston will be better defensively this season, but there is more than enough to feel confident with Richardson as a QB1 start.
Daniel Jones (at Cardinals)
We correctly called the Giants' struggles offensively last week as Dallas completely smothered the Giants' offensive line. Losing T Andrew Thomas doesn’t help things, either. Keeping Jones upright was a massive problem for the Giants last year. Jones was pressured on 36.5% of his dropbacks (second-highest rate).
This is as good of a bounceback spot as you could ask for, though.
Over the last three seasons, Daniel Jones has averaged 19.8 FPG as a favorite vs. 14.1 FPG as an underdog. The Giants (-6) are the fifth-largest favorites on the board. Sam Howell (15.2 FP) finished as the QB12 in this spot Week 1.
Sits
Dak Prescott (vs. Jets)
Dak didn’t have to do much offensively last week as the Cowboys' defense did the heavy lifting, creating sacks and turnovers all game long. Despite the Cowboys' 40-burger, Prescott finished the week with just 6.3 FP (QB28). Unfortunately, Dak’s outlook this week is not much better. The Cowboys offense could wind up in a similar spot to last week – not having to do much – as massive 9.5-point favorites over the Jets.
The Jets are one of the few defenses to be afraid of actively. After allowing a league-low 11.1 passing fantasy points per game last season, the Jets held Josh Allen to the fewest FP (9.0) he’s scored in his last 71 starts since his rookie season in Week 1.
Dak is a low-floor QB2 for Week 2 lineup decisions.
Streamers / SuperFlex Starts
Brock Purdy (at Rams)
Purdy is much closer to a QB1 start than a streamer play. His insane touchdown rate will eventually regress, but I continue to be impressed by Purdy’s pocket presence and poise. His stats, when given a clean pocket, are legitimately stellar.
Purdy ranked second-best in passer rating (128.9) from a clean pocket in Week 1. This is not a fluke! Last year, Purdy ranked fifth-best in clean pocket passer rating (110.8). The cast of pass catchers always gets the credit but Purdy deserves his share of respect for consistently putting the ball in the right spot.
HC Kyle Shanahan has always dialed up excellent game plans against the Rams, and with all of his weapons healthy, this is an amazing spot. The 49ers have won eight straight regular season games vs. the Rams. San Francisco has the fourth-highest implied scoring total (26.5) on the week.
Running Backs
Starts
James Cook (vs. Raiders)
Cook did not stuff the box score (12/46 rushing | 4/17 receiving) Week 1 in a tough matchup against the Jets, but his underlying usage was very encouraging. Cook was the Bills' clear lead back on early downs (64% snap rate on 1st and 2nd downs) and ranked 14th among RBs in route share (48%), leading to six targets. Bills former starter Devin Singletary got six targets just five times across 37 games in 2021-22 in Buffalo.
That type of usage will play as a weekly RB2, but this matchup pushes Cook to front-end RB2 territory.
We still don’t know if the Bills will let Cook handle goal-line carries, but even if he has to split that work, he projects as an upside RB2 play with the Bills sporting the highest implied total (28.3 points) of the week.
Rachaad White (vs. Bears)
Rachaad White got the bell-cow usage we expected Week 1. He ranked fifth in snap rate (79.4%) and seventh in route share (52.6%) among RBs. Notably, White and Christian McCaffrey were the only two RBs who played on 100% of their team’s red-zone snaps.
On the downside, we don’t count snaps as fantasy points. White struggled to pick up yards (17 carries, 39 yards) as the Buccaneers offensive line opened up just 0.65 yards before first contact (29th-of-41 RBs).
As a home-favorite (-2.5) against a bad Bears defense, the process points to White as a strong RB2 start. Chicago allowed the second-most FP to RBs last season and just gave up the third-most FP to Packers RBs in Week 1. If we don’t see any improvement this week with this insane level of usage, I will be concerned for White’s longer-term outlook.
James Conner (vs. Giants)
At this point, we are just blindly placing Conner into lineups as a volume-based RB2 and hoping he falls into the endzone. The wheels will fall off at some point, but Conner’s floor just remains so strong. In seven starts without Kyler Murray, Conner has finished as the fantasy RB4, RB14, RB5, RB12, RB5, RB15, and RB21. He never comes off the field and just marginally trailed Christian McCaffrey as the RB leader in snaps in Week 1. Even as a huge underdog, Conner projects as a strong RB2. Like always.
FLEX Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. Seahawks)
I wasn’t the least bit surprised by the Lions' backfield usage in Week 1 when it came to the ground game. We fully expected Montgomery to be the clear lead runner. However, it was a little surprising to see Gibbs only run 7 routes (two targets) while Montgomery ran 12 routes (0 targets). The funny part is that Gibbs would have been a top-15 scorer on the week had the turf monster not taken him down inside-the-10.
Gibbs looked phenomenal in limited action, leading all RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.86).
We’re fully expecting Gibbs’ role to expand this week. And as a huge home favorite attached to the fifth-largest team total (26.3 implied points), there should be plenty of opportunities for both Montgomery and Gibbs.
Seattle’s scheme funnels checkdowns to running backs, and they have allowed the 10th, 1st, and 6th-most receiving yards to the position over the last three years. The Rams hardly throw to their running backs, so we didn’t see that tested Week 1, but Jahmyr Gibbs will change that here.
Montgomery projects as a rock solid back-end RB2, while Gibbs is a high-ceiling RB2/FLEX.
Sits
Najee Harris (vs. Browns)
As expected, the Steelers split their backfield Week 1, with Harris handling 52.5% of the snaps while Jaylen Warren was at 39.5%. Most worrying for Harris is that he’s no longer going to get a bunch of dump-offs to bail you out in PPR leagues. Warren ran 17 routes (six targets), while Harris ran 21 routes (2 targets). Obviously, last week’s game got out of hand so fast that the Steelers couldn’t really run the ball, and this matchup vs. Cleveland is easier than San Francisco’s vaunted run defense.
Still, we have no confidence in OC Matt Canada as a play caller, and the Steelers just lost their best wide receiver. The Browns front seven is going to wreak havoc on Pickett. Harris projects as a TD-dependent FLEX at best these days.
Cam Akers (vs. 49ers)
Few running backs saw worse blocking than Cam Akers did in Week 1 (-0.23 yards before contact), however, there are some massive red flags surrounding usage here. Kyren Williams (65%) out-snapped Akers (35%) by a massive margin, largely driven by Williams’ role in the pass game.
Williams ran a route on 66.7% of the Rams pass plays, fourth-most among running backs. Akers had one (1!) pass route.
However, it wasn’t just the passing down split. Williams (3) and Akers (2) split carries inside-the-10 (red zone), and it was Akers who got the clean-up carries when the game was already decided.
Ideally, you don’t have to start either of these two RBs – but Akers’ fantasy stock is in a very precarious spot. Williams may be the lead early-down RB and the passing-down specialist. The 49ers front-seven allowed the fewest yards per game to opposing running backs last season (59.7) and gave up just 9/37 rushing to Steelers RBs Week 1.
Ravens RBs
After J.K. Dobbins’ injury, the Ravens split RB snaps right down the middle between Justice Hill (13) and Gus Edwards (12). Edwards got 8 carries, while Hill had 7. Melvin Gordon should play this week, too, making this a gross three-way committee for the foreseeable future. Ravens C Tyler Linderbaum and T Ronnie Stanley are both injured and in danger of missing the game, further downgrading a Ravens run game that was stuck in neutral in Week 1 vs. the Texans. I prefer Edwards as the long-term play over Hill.
Wide Receivers
Starts
Tee Higgins (vs. Ravens)
Don’t rage bench Higgins after last week’s goose egg. Just 3 of Higgins’ 8 targets were catchable, as Joe Burrow had the worst outing of his career. We have to go right back to Higgins as a WR2 play with the Ravens nursing key injuries in the secondary with CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) and S Marcus Williams (torn pec) out. Texans WRs racked up 19 receptions for 200 yards vs. the Ravens last week.
Mike Evans (vs. Bears)
Evans was Baker Mayfield’s go-to target in Week 1, earning a team-high 0.26 TPRR and 38.1% first read target share over Chris Godwin (0.19 TPRR, 28% FR). That is back-end WR1 usage for Evans, which is exactly what we expect from him. I’m not fully confident in Mayfield yet, but I am confident that Evans will get open at will here. The Bears surrendered the fourth-most yards per route run to outside WRs (2.18) last season and just surrendered 8/94/2 to perimeter receivers in Week 1 to the Packers skeleton crew.
Mike Williams (at Titans)
Williams (4/45 receiving) had a quiet Week 1, but that was due in some part to leaving in the middle of the game to get checked for a concussion. Williams ultimately returned, but the Chargers had so much success on the ground that they didn’t have to throw as much as expected. That will change this week up against 19the league’s stingiest run defense. Tennessee allowed the third-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to RBs (-3.6) and a league-low 3.35 YPC last season and just held Saints RBs to 19/50 (2.63 YPC) rushing Week 1.
As a result of their stellar run defense, the Titans routinely face more passes, and they give up production in bunches to receivers. Chargers OC Kellen Moore said that he wanted to get Williams involved in the slot more, and that played out in Week 1 with Williams running 45% of his routes from the slot while Keenan Allen ran 55% of his routes inside. That type of usage will give Williams a pathway to more consistent production.
This is a blowup spot for the Chargers pass game. After allowing the third-most yards per game to WRs last season, the Titans gave up the third-most yards to Saints WRs (189) in Week 1. Allen is a locked-in WR1, while Williams is in play as a WR2 option.
FLEX Plays
Jerry Jeudy (vs. Commanders)
Jeudy was apparently close to playing in Week 1 and warmed up pre-game, signifying that he should be back and near 100% for Week 2. The Broncos WR group really struggled to separate last week, further highlighting how crucial Jeudy’s separation skills are for Russell Wilson’s success. Luckily, Jeudy gets a great matchup right out of the gates.
Washington ran man coverage at the 4th-highest rate (39.4%) in Week 1. Last year, Jeudy absolutely ate Cover-1 (man) to the tune of 3.43 YPRR (second-best) – Russell Wilson was a much better QB vs. man coverage compared to zone.
Just as a reminder… When he was healthy last season, Jeudy produced like a WR1 despite all of the issues that plagued the Broncos offense. In the 11 games where he played at least 60% of the snaps, Jeudy averaged 14.4 Half-PPR points per game – which would have made him WR9.
Sits
Drake London (vs. Packers)
I’m not sure what else to do here. London got chased into the fourth round this year as the public collectively forgot that he scored 12 or more FP just five times last season. Week 1 was a reminder of how low his floor can get.
Desmond Ridder attempted just 18 passes for a league-low 3.2-yard average depth of target vs. Carolina in Week 1. Across six career starts, Ridder averages a pathetic 164.6 passing yards per game. For reference, that would be the 17th-lowest individual season by YPG among starting QBs since 2000.
Atlanta ran the ball 65% on early downs in Week 1. That is easily the highest rate in the league and nearly 20% (!!) above the league-average rate. So, not only is London dealing with historically low volume, he’s also got a space cadet calling plays. Mack Hollins getting 4 targets to London’s one is indefensible coaching.
Until (if?) the Falcons pass volume goes up, London is not in play for WR2/3 decisions.
Brandin Cooks (vs. Jets)
Cooks (2/22 receiving on 4 targets) had a quiet Week 1 because Dallas barely had to throw the ball in their non-competitive opener. Well, a similar type of game is likely to play out here with the Cowboys (-9.5) as huge favorites over the Jets. Regardless, we do not play non-elite outside WRs vs. the Jets. Period. CeeDee Lamb (80% slot Week 1) gets the fortune of running the majority of his routes from the interior, while Cooks (78% outside Week 1) will face the Jets' daunting perimeter coverage — if he plays at all (knee).
Marquise Brown (vs. Giants)
Brown was a draft-and-stash WR4 target until Kyler Murray returns in Week 5. This matchup is not imposing at all, but I just have no faith that Josh Dobbs can supply Brown with accurate targets to get there for fantasy. Just like last week, Brown is a thin play.
Tight Ends
Start
Luke Musgrave (at Falcons)
Musgrave just missed on a monster game in his debut. Jordan Love missed him wide-open on a crosser, and the duo should have had a TD had the turf monster not gotten Musgrave on a busted play. Hilariously, Musgrave’s 50 yards last week was good enough for second-most on the slate.
We are going to Musgrave as the top streamer this week. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are nursing hamstring injuries, which will force Love to rely heavily on Musgrave again. He easily led the Packers in route share (71%) in Week 1, and he gets a primo matchup here. After allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season, Atlanta allowed 5/41/1 to Hayden Hurst in Week 1.
Best and Worst Games
Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.
