2023 Week 15 DFS Coverage Shells

Week 15 is unique in multiple ways. We’ve got three Saturday games for the first time this season, and the fantasy playoffs are underway. But if you’re also on a first-round bye and looking to enjoy it all as a traditional fan/bettor, there are a handful of matchups with lucrative team totals worth exploring.

Competitive teams are making their final push for a playoff berth, some also looking to secure the highest seed possible.

Weather is also becoming a more critical component in certain areas of the country. Higher projected scoring games featuring explosive offenses (even better if playing in domes), provide us with more certainty in analyzing specific matchups.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Cowboys @ Bills

The red-hot Dallas Cowboys travel to Buffalo to take on an incredibly motivated Bills team craving a chance to squeeze into the AFC playoff picture.

This game total currently hovers around 50.5 (up from 49.5 earlier in the week), with the Bills as 2.5-point favorites (up from 2 earlier in the week).

Weather didn’t appear to be a potential issue when I first started writing this, but now there’s a 70-80% chance of rain by the time this game kicks off at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday.

Each defense plays quite differently from a schematic standpoint:

Over the last month of the season, Dallas has deployed man coverage on 44% of their coverage snaps, highest among all defenses.

Buffalo continues to lean on their heavy use of two-high coverage looks (60%), 3rd in the NFL through Week 14.

Comparing defensive tendencies to opponents' production/strengths, as well as the possible forecast, Bills QB Josh Allen ($8,200) is in for another intriguing matchup.

Allen drops back vs man coverage at the 5th-highest rate among QBs (30%) and averages 0.65 fantasy points per opportunity, 4th-best in the NFL. He leads all QBs in total scrambles (14) and PPR points (105) vs man this season, a friendly reminder of how much of a threat he is with his legs and outside of structure.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott ($8,000) drops back vs two-high looks at a 51% clip, 9th-most among QBs. His 0.47 points per opportunity rank 10th.

Prescott faces less of an enticing schematic matchup, and Buffalo’s relatively lower rate of man doesn’t bode too well considering Dak’s splits if we're being picky about things (been more efficient vs man compared to zone, and more efficient vs single-high looks than two-high):

We all know that Dak’s main contributions live/die from within the pocket as a passer. We can expect a good amount of attempts from him as long as there aren’t abysmal levels of rain, considering the fact that the Bills allow a top-10 neutral pass rate to opposing offenses over the last month of the season (59%).

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) doesn’t exactly hold a strong edge over his teammates based on the coverage matchup, specifically with TE Jake Ferguson ($4,800).

Ferguson is targeted at an equivalent rate and is slightly more efficient vs two-high defenses than Lamb this season.

Further, the Bills allow just a 61% pass rate to opponents’ first reads, 2nd-lowest among all defenses. Another tough variable for CeeDee Lamb as he looks to continue his current rate of elite production.

Also: Opposing offenses checkdown vs BUF at the highest rate in the NFL (14%). Dallas is red hot, but haven’t been as dominant against stronger competition outside of the recent beatdown vs the Eagles. Many will roster Prescott/Lamb and I think it’s a good week to be contrarian in DFS formats.

Commanders @ Rams

The struggling Washington Commanders travel to Los Angeles fresh off their bye week to take on the Rams, who conversely are coming off the tails of a gut-wrenching overtime loss in Baltimore.

Surprisingly, this game is currently tied with DAL/BUF for the highest total of the week at 50.5 points. The Rams are favored by 6 (implied team total of 28.25, 2nd-highest this week).

Given all of that, QB Matthew Stafford is somehow priced outside of the top 10 QBs on the Week 15 slate ($6,000).

One of the biggest reasons for this total has to do with the defenses we’re working with. Over the last month of the season, WAS (69%) and LAR (68%) allow the two highest neutral pass rates to opponents in the NFL:

Weather isn’t a factor (unlike last week for the Rams in Baltimore) and the Commanders are a pass-happy offense projected to be trailing in this one.

Rookie WR Puka Nacua ($7,300) has a favorable matchup based on what the Commanders' defense has deployed in coverage for the larger part of the 2023 season. WAS deploys two-high looks at a 56% clip, 6th-most among defenses.

Puka owns a 2.72 YPRR and 38% share of the team’s receiving yards vs two-high defenses. Both rank inside the top 4 out of 93 qualifiers this season.

It’s important to note that Commanders HC Ron Rivera took over the defensive play-calling duties after firing then DC Jack Del Rio following a brutal Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys.

With Del Rio calling the shots on defense (Weeks 1-12), the Commanders deployed man coverage at the league’s 5th-highest rate (34%). In Rivera’s only game calling the defense, they ran zone coverage on 96% of their coverage snaps, man on just 4%, and two-high on 72% of them.

Some analysts out there have touted WAS as a man-heavy unit but I want to tread some caution on those statements given the recent shakeup on the headset.

For the Rams, they deploy zone coverage 6th-most among defenses (77%) and at an 85% clip over their last 3 games, 2nd in the NFL over that span.

This is interesting because defenses have deployed man coverage at a top 5 rate against Commanders QB Sam Howell ($6,300) all season.

Among 28 QBs with 200+ dropbacks vs. zone coverage this season, Howell owns the highest turnover-worthy throw rate at 5.4%. His 36 sacks on zone dropbacks are the most in the NFL despite dropping back vs. zone at one of the lower rates among starting QBs.

My assumption as to why Howell is cheaper than Stafford is because of the perceived dropback volume he’ll garner while trailing. He isn’t a mobile threat, and his numbers against zone as a passer and relating to sack avoidance are brutal.

It’ll be the Wild West at SoFi come Sunday.

Broncos @ Lions

After a tough divisional loss to Chicago in Week 14, the Lions are glad to be back home to take on an overachieving Denver Broncos squad this Saturday.

Detroit is currently 4.5-point favorites (26.25 implied team total, 4th-highest this week).

To be fair, the Broncos have bounced back drastically on the defensive side of the football from the first half of the regular season:

Over the last month, Denver has deployed single-high coverage looks at the 7th-highest rate in the league (63%). As you can see, their single-high usage has remained pretty stable over that time as well:

Lions QB Jared Goff ($6,500) is more productive against single-high defenses from a fantasy lense:

Typically, single-high defenses are goldmines for a team’s WR1. This mostly holds true for Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900) against the Broncos, but it’s also worth considering rookie TE Sam LaPorta ($6,000). LaPorta is tied for the 2nd-most TDs in the NFL vs single-high this year (6):

Denver allows the highest percentage of their targets to inline pass catchers this season at 14.1%. They’ve also given up the most receptions (48) and receiving yards per game (39) to them as well. 42% of LaPorta’s routes and targets have come as Detroit’s inline TE, so this bodes well with his alignment versatility both inline and through the slot under OC Ben Johnson.

Shifts in defensive tendencies can also be recognized in Detroit’s defense. More specifically, a higher/stable rate in single-high looks, even more particularly, in Cover 1:

This is an interesting trend because Broncos QB Russell Wilson ($6,000) rarely drops back against single-high. Denver’s 42% single-high dropback rate is the 2nd-lowest percentage among offenses in 2023.

Wilson still sticks to a conservative game plan regardless of the coverage he’s facing. His absurd 20% overall checkdown rate leads all qualified QBs by a decent margin this year.

With all of that being said, WR Jerry Jeudy ($4,700) is a relative value compared to teammate Courtland Sutton ($6,400) from a single-high perspective:

Quick Hits

The Baltimore Ravens are facing zone coverage on 84% of their dropbacks since TE Mark Andrews’ injury in Week 11

• 2nd-highest in the NFL

• 63% before injury (2nd-lowest in the NFL)

The Bills deploy two-high coverage on 60% of their coverage snaps this season

• 3rd-most among defenses

• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: 0.24 TPRR / 1.91 YPRR

• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson: 0.24 TPRR / 2.02 YPRR

Rams WR Puka Nacua owns a 2.72 YPRR and 38% team yardage share vs two-high defenses this season

• Both top four out of 93 qualifiers this season

• Commanders deploy two-high the 6th-highest rate among defenses (56%)

• Rams averaging 4th-best points per dropback vs two-high over their last five games (0.59) while facing it at the 7th-highest rate (51%)

Rams deploy Cover 3/4/6 on a combined 74% of their coverage snaps this season

• All are zone coverage

• 77% overall zone usage ranks 6th among defenses

Broncos have deployed single-high coverage looks at a 63% clip over the last month of the season

• 7th-highest usage among defenses

• 53% from Weeks 1-10 (15th)

Lions Weeks 1-5:

• 56% in 11 personnel

• 24% in 12 personnel

• 7% in 13 personnel

Lions Weeks 6-10:

• 64% in 11 personnel

• 28% in 12 personnel

• 7% in 13 personnel

Lions last month:

• 70% in 11 personnel

• 14% in 12 personnel

• 12% in 13 personnel

Cardinals allow 52.4 receiving YPG to slot pass catchers

• 2nd-fewest among all defenses this season

• Allow 137.7 receiving YPG to pass catchers lined up out wide — 2nd-most among all defenses this season

49ers WR Deebo Samuel owns a 4.27 YPRR, 0.80 FPRR, 42% receiving yards and 30% target share against two-high defenses this season

• All are the highest in the NFL out of 136 qualifiers

• Cardinals deploy two-high coverage 2nd-most among defenses (64%)

Bears WR DJ Moore owns 62% of the team’s receiving yards vs man coverage

• Highest share among all pass catchers in the NFL this season

• Browns deploy man coverage at the 4th-highest rate among defenses (38%)

Steelers WR George Pickens owns 43% of the team’s receiving yards vs Cover 3

• 2nd-highest share out of 101 qualifiers this season

• Colts deploy Cover 3 at the 2nd-highest rate among defenses (51%)