Brolley's Best Bets: 2023 Super Bowl LVIII

Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Super Bowl LVIII. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. My first wagers of the week will be posted around 10 a.m. on Mondays. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.

Enter the Fantasy Points Super Bowl LVIII Props Contest for your chance at more than $1,600 in prizes!

GAME PICKS

Best Bets ATS Record: 50-34 (59.5%, +12.45 units); CC: 1-1

Overall ATS Record (from Staff Picks): 147-132-5 (52.7%); CC: 1-1

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1.5, FANDUEL) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have the chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions, which hasn’t happened since Tom Brady and the Patriots accomplished the feat in 2003-04. Kansas City made it back to the Super Bowl the hard way, knocking off the AFC’s top two seeds, the Ravens and Bills, as road underdogs. Kansas City has reeled off five straight outright and ATS victories since their embarrassing home loss to the Raiders as double-digit point favorites. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has anchored Kansas City’s deep run this time around, frustrating Lamar Jackson with 4 sacks and limiting the Ravens to just 10 points. Mahomes did his best Brady impression by carving up the Ravens in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, completing 30/39 passes for 241 yards and 1 TD. Mahomes now owns a 14-3 postseason record and a ridiculous 10-1-1 career record as an underdog. I bet against Mahomes as an underdog in the Conference Championship Game, and I won’t be making the same mistake in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco will be looking to avenge its loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. The 49ers haven’t taken a dramatic step backwards but they’ve been trending in the wrong direction with three straight failed covers and a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven games. The 49ers survived a pair of shaky performances from Brock Purdy in the postseason, and their run defense has been exposed as a weakness by the Lions and Packers in back-to-back contests. The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites following the Conference Championship Games, but it was quickly bet down by a point or more across the board. The 49ers will likely go off as short favorites, but I’ll side with Mahomes getting 1.5 points and on the moneyline. Placed Jan. 29. Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit.

PLAYER PROPS

2023 Player Props Record: 132-136 (49.3%, -16.12 units); CC: 3-1

All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.

Super Bowl LVIII Props

Brock Purdy (SF) over 10.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

• 11/62 rushing in 2 postseason games, KC allowed the 10th-most rushing YPG (20.1) to QBs in the regular season, KC has allowed 25+ yards in 5 straight games including to Tagovailoa

Deebo Samuel (SF) over 53.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

• KC deploys by far an NFL-high in 2-high safety coverage (70%) over the entire season, Deebo owns team-bests in YPRR (3.20) and target share (23.7%) against 2-high, moves around more than Aiyuk to help avoid Sneed, 55+ yards in 9-of-14 full games

Brock Purdy (SF) interception: YES (-115, FanDuel)

• INTs in 7 of his last 13 games, Purdy ranked 12th out of 35 QBs with 200+ attempts in turnover-worthy throw rate (3.6%) in the regular season, which rose to a league-worst 7.1% in the postseason, his turnover-worthy throw rate also sat at 5.1% in his two full postseason games last off-season

Game Props

Distance of Final Successful FG: UNDER 40.5 YARDS (-110, DraftKings). Under “D/ST Props” then under “FG - Yards”

• 71.4% of Moody’s made FGs have come from 39 yards or shorter (15 of 21), 63.6% of Butker’s made FGs have come from 39 yards or shorter (21 of 33), 49ers games have finished with 40-yard FGs or shorter 73.6% of the time (14 of 19), Chiefs games have finished with 40-yard FGs or shorter 60% of the time (12 of 20)

Player to have Higher Completion Percentage: Patrick Mahomes (-120, FanDuel). Under “Passing Props” then under “Other QB Props”

• KC is allowing a 60.5% completion percentage over the entire season, SF is allowing a 65.5% completion percentage over 19 games, Mahomes owns a 67.4% completion percentage in 17 postseason games and has topped 66% or better in 10 of his last 11 postseason games, Purdy owns a completion percentage of 63.2% in 5 postseason games and has never topped 65.5% in his 4 full playoff games

Super Bowl LVIII Long-Shot Props

Check out my Super Bowl LVIII Long-shot Props article for full explanations for each bet!

Travis Kelce (KC) to win Super Bowl MVP (+2000, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 10 units.

Deebo Samuel (SF) to win Super Bowl MVP (+3800, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 19 units.

George Kittle (SF) Player To Record Longest Reception Of The Game (+950, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 4.75 units. Listed under “Receiving Props” at the bottom of the page.

Brock Purdy (SF) anytime touchdown (+900, FanDuel). Risk .5 units to win 4.5 units.

Brock Purdy (SF) over 1.5 interceptions (+450, ESPNBet). Risk .5 units to win 2.25 units. Under “Player Props” then under “Player Total Interceptions”

Total Players with Receptions: OVER 13.5 (+145, DraftKings). Risk 1 unit to win 1.45 units. Under “Receiving Props” then under “Receiving Specials”

2023 NFL Power Rankings: Super Bowl LVIII

My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.

How to use my power rankings: The San Francisco 49ers (10.5), would be 1-point favorites on a neutral field over the Kansas City Chiefs (9.5).